Ottawa, ON, October 13, 2017 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales in September rose modestly from the previous month but remained down from levels recorded one year ago.

Highlights:

• National home sales rose 2.1% from August to September.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 11% below last September’s level.
• The number of newly listed homes rebounded by 4.9% from August to September.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 10.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) in September 2017.
• The national average sale price climbed by 2.8% y-o-y in September.

The number of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems edged up 2.1% in September 2017. The small gain builds on an even smaller increase in August, but leaves national home sales almost 12% below the record set in March.

Activity was up between August and September in about half of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and Vancouver Island, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), London and St. Thomas, and Barrie. In and around the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, some markets posted monthly sales gains while activity in others remained near recent lows or fell further.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 11% in September 2017 compared to the record for the month in 2016. Sales were down from year-ago levels in close to three-quarters of all local markets, led by the GTA and nearby housing markets.

“National sales appear to be stabilizing,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “While encouraging, it’s too early to tell if this is the beginning of a longer-term trend. The national result continues to be influenced heavily by trends in Toronto and Vancouver but housing market conditions vary widely across Canada. All real estate is local, and REALTORS^® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to.”

“Further tightening of federal regulations aimed at cooling housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver risks creating collateral damage in markets elsewhere in Canada,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “It also jeopardizes Canadian economic growth, which is already showing signs of fading.”

The number of newly listed homes rebounded by almost 5% in September following three consecutive monthly declines. The national result was largely the result of a jump in new supply in the GTA.

With new listings up by more than sales in September, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 55.7% compared to 57.2% in August. A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

That said, this rule of thumb varies among local markets. Considering the degree and duration that current market balance is above or below its long-term average is a more sophisticated way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. (Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of the long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions).

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September 2017.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2017, unchanged from August and broadly in line with the long-term average for the measure.

At 2.4 months, the number of months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region is up sharply from the all-time low of 0.8 months reached in February and March. However, it remains below the region’s long-term average of 3.1 months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 10.7% y-o-y in September 2017, representing a further deceleration in y-o-y gains since April.

The deceleration in price gains largely reflects softening price trends in Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index.

Price gains diminished in September among the ground-level benchmark homes tracked by the index and accelerated slightly for apartment units.

Apartment units again posted the largest y-o-y gains in September (+19.8%), followed by townhouse/row units (+13.5%), one-storey single family homes (+7.9%), and two-storey single family homes (+7.2%).

While price trends continue to vary widely by region, benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in all 13 markets tracked by the MLS® HPI – something that has not happened in close to seven years.

After having dipped in the second half of last year, benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have recovered and now stand at new highs (Greater Vancouver: +10.9% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +16.2% y-o-y).

Benchmark home price increases have slowed to about 15% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria, while still running at about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Price gains slowed further on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph; however, prices in those markets remain well above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +12.2% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +8.8% y-o-y; Guelph: +17.3% y-o-y).

Calgary benchmark prices remained just inside positive territory on a y-o-y basis in September (+0.6%). Meanwhile, home prices accelerated on a y-o-y basis in Regina (+7.7% y-o-y) and turned positive in Saskatoon, posting their first y-o-y gain since mid-2015.

Benchmark home price growth accelerated in Ottawa (+6.2% y-o-y overall, led by a 7.2% increase in one-storey single family home prices), Greater Montreal (+5.1% y-o-y overall, led by an 8.3% increase in prices for townhouse/row units), and Greater Moncton (+5.4% y-o-y overall, led by a 7.2% increase in one-storey single family home prices).

For Ottawa and Greater Montreal, the September 2017 y-o-y price gains were the largest since November 2010 and May 2011 respectively.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in September 2017 was just over $487,000, up almost 3% from one year ago. The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations trims more than $110,000 from the national average price (to just above $374,500).

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460

Ottawa, ON, September 15, 2017 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2017 and 2018.

Housing market trends continue to diverge considerably among regions along four general themes: British Columbia; the Greater Golden Horseshoe; oil and natural resource dependent provinces; and everywhere else.

In Ontario, housing market sentiment has sidelined more buyers than was previously anticipated following changes to provincial housing policies aimed at reining in housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region announced in April. Activity has begun to show tentative signs of stabilizing among markets in the region, but is down sharply since March amid a rapid shift in housing market balance and increased cautiousness among homebuyers. Because the region is home to a quarter of the Canadian population, changes in sales activity there have a large influence on results for the province and nationally.

The downward revision in the national sales forecast primarily reflects the drop in Ontario home sales, which are projected to rebound only partially later this year. Because home prices in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region are well above those in much of the rest of Canada, the decline in Ontario’s share of national sales is also responsible for much of the downward revision in the national average price forecast.

In British Columbia, activity appears to be stabilizing somewhere in between the highs of early 2016 and the lows of late 2016 and early 2017. Meanwhile, sales activity is still running at lower levels while supply remains elevated in the natural resource-intensive provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. This has resulted in somewhat softer price trends in the two western provinces and more pronounced price declines in Newfoundland and Labrador.

To varying degrees, housing markets in Manitoba, Northern and Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island had a breakout year in 2016, with rising sales drawing down previously elevated levels of supply. Inventories in these regions have continued to decline this year.

Tightened mortgage rules, higher mortgage default insurance premiums, changes to Ontario housing policies and higher interest rates are factors that will continue to lean against housing market activity over the rest of the year and into 2018. Additional interest rate increases and further tightening of mortgage regulations represent downside risks to the sales forecast, while improving Canadian economic fundamentals represent upside risks.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to decline by 5.3% to 506,900 units in 2017, which represents a drop of more than 20,000 transactions from CREA’s forecast published in June. The decline stems almost entirely from the downward revision to the forecast Ontario home sales. Sales in British Columbia and Ontario are both now projected to decline by about 10% in 2017 compared to all-time records set in 2016.

Newfoundland & Labrador is also forecast to see a sizeable decline in sales in 2017 (-8.1%), continuing a softening trend that stretches back nearly a decade. A smaller decline in activity is forecast for Saskatchewan (-4%).

Alberta is still projected to post the largest increase in activity in 2017 (+7.4%); however, the increase still leaves sales below the provincial 10-year average.

Sales this year are also forecast to rise in Quebec (+5.4% and New Brunswick (+5.7%), rise modestly in Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and remain little changed in Prince Edward Island.

Manitoba and Quebec are the only two provinces expected to set new annual sales records in 2017, while sales in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island are on track to come in just short of all-time record levels.

The national average price is forecast to rise by 3.4% to $506,700 in 2017. This marks a downward revision to the previous forecast, mostly reflecting fewer high priced sales in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

While Ontario is still forecast to post a sizeable year-over-year gain in 2017 (+8.7%), this is a large downward revision to the previously forecast increase.

Prince Edward Island is expected to post a similar average home price gain in 2017 (+7.4%), followed by Quebec (+4.5%), New Brunswick (+4.4%), Nova Scotia (+3.5%), Manitoba (+2.8%), British Columbia (+2.2%) and Alberta (+1.2%).

Newfoundland and Labrador (-4.3%) and Saskatchewan (-1.6%) are the only provinces where average price is projected to decline in 2017, in line with elevated supply relative to demand in these provinces.

In 2018, national sales are forecast to number 495,100 units, representing a decline of 2.3% compared to the 2017 forecast. As is the case this year, most of the annual decline in sales next year reflects an expected decline in Ontario sales, with activity anticipated to remain well below the record-levels logged in early 2017.

The national average price is forecast to edge lower by 0.6% to $503,500 in 2018, in large part reflecting a record number of high-end home sales in and around Toronto in early 2017 that is not expected to reoccur in 2018.

Further expected interest rate increases will hold sales in check in the Greater Vancouver and Toronto Areas. As a result, the average price is forecast to hold steady in 2018 in British Columbia and edge back by 1.1% in Ontario.

In an extension of trends for 2017, average prices in 2018 are forecast to rise by more than the rate of consumer price inflation in Quebec and New Brunswick, decline further in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador and either remain little changed or rise modestly next year in all other provinces.

– 30 –

 About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations

The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: [email protected]­

Ottawa, ON, July 17, 2017 – According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales cooled further in June 2017.

Highlights:

• National home sales dropped 6.7% from May to June.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in June stood 11.4% below last June’s level.
• The number of newly listed homes edged back by 1.5% from May to June.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 15.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in June 2017.
• The national average sale price edged up just 0.4% y-o-y in June.

The number of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems fell 6.7% in June 2017, the largest monthly decline since June 2010. With sales having also declined in each of the two previous months, activity in June came in 14.1% below the record set in March.

June sales were down from the previous month in 70% of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Monthly declines were also posted in all surrounding Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Kingston, Montreal and Quebec City.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 11.4% on a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, much of which reflected a significant drop in GTA sales activity. Nonetheless, half of all local housing markets recorded y-o-y sales declines. By contrast, Calgary, Edmonton, London and St. Thomas, Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax-Dartmouth topped the list of Canadian cities where home sales surpassed year-ago levels.

“Canadian economic and job growth have been improving, which is good news for housing demand,” said CREA President Andrew Peck. “However, it also means that interest rates have begun to rise, which may impact homebuyer confidence – particularly in pricier markets like Toronto and Vancouver where recent housing policies had already moved potential buyers to the sidelines. In lower priced markets, the effect of higher interest rates on housing affordability will be relatively muted. All real estate is local, and REALTORS® remain your best source for information about sales and listings where you live or might like to.”

“Changes to Ontario housing policy made in late April have clearly prompted many homebuyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region to take a step back and assess how the housing market absorbs the changes,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The recent increase in interest rates could reinforce a lack of urgency to purchase or, alternatively, move some buyers off the sidelines before their pre-approved mortgage rate expires. In the meantime, some move-up buyers who previously purchased a home before first selling may become more motivated to reduce their asking price rather than carry two mortgages.”

The number of newly listed homes slid 1.5% in June, led by a sizeable pullback in the GTA compared to record levels in April and May. A number of other markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe also saw a pullback in new supply.

With sales down by considerably more than new listings in June, the national sales-to-new listings ratio moved further into balanced market territory at 52.8%. The ratio had been in the high-60% range just three months earlier.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively.

The ratio was above 60% in fewer than half of all local housing markets in June. The majority of markets with a ratio above 60% are located in British Columbia and Ontario, but a number of Greater Golden Horseshoe markets have downshifted into balanced territory. The ratio fell below 40% in the GTA and Barrie.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2017 – up a full month from where the measure stood in March and the highest level since January 2015.

Months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region are up from the all-time lows reached prior to the Ontario government housing policy changes announced in April 2017. For the region as a whole, there were 2.5 months of inventory in June 2017. While this remains below the long term average of just over three months, it is up sharply from an all-time low of just 0.8 months set in February and March.

Across markets in the region, months of inventory ranged from 1.5 months to 3 months in June 2017. As such, housing markets within the Greater Golden Horseshoe remain the tightest in Canada together with those on Vancouver Island and B.C.’s Lower Mainland.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 15.8% y-o-y in June 2017, representing a further deceleration in y-o-y gains since April.

Price gains diminished in all benchmark home categories, led by single family homes. Apartment units posted the largest y-o-y gains in June (+20.4%), followed by townhouse/row units (+17.4%), two-storey single family homes (+15.4%), and one-storey single family homes (+12.3%).

While benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in 11 of 13 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI, price trends continued to vary widely by region.

Benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have been recovering after having dipped in the second half of last year. While y-o-y price gains continue to slow (Greater Vancouver: +7.9% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +13.9% y-o-y), the trend appears poised to accelerate later this summer as price declines last year fade further in the rear view mirror.

Meanwhile, y-o-y benchmark home price increases were running just below 20% in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Benchmark price gains slowed on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Guelph, and particularly in Oakville-Milton but remain well above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +25.3% y-o-y; Guelph: +25.4% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +17.4% y-o-y).

Calgary benchmark prices remained slightly positive on a y-o-y basis in June (+0.6%), while Regina and Saskatoon home prices came in below year-ago levels (-0.7% and -3.1%, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by more than the rate of overall consumer price inflation in Ottawa (+5.2% overall, led by a 6.2% increase in both one and two-storey single family home prices), Greater Montreal (+4.2% overall, led by a 6.9% increase in prices for townhouse/row units) and Greater Moncton (+4.7% overall, led by a 10.6% increase in prices for townhouse/row units).

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average prices are prone to being strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in June 2017 was $504,458, up just 0.4% from where it stood one year earlier.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations trims more than $100,000 from the national average price ($394,660).

– 30 –

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month. 

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types. 

MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 REALTORS® working through some 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: [email protected]

Ottawa, ON, June 15, 2017 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2017 and 2018.

Housing market trends continue to diverge considerably among regions along four general themes: British Columbia, the Greater Golden Horseshoe, oil and natural resource dependent provinces, and everywhere else.

In British Columbia, activity is showing early signs of recovering from last year’s correction in some areas of the province. This suggests home buying sentiment may be starting to improve.

In Ontario, evidence suggests that housing market sentiment has similarly cooled following housing policy changes made by the provincial government in April 2017. Trends for the province are softening, with home sales and price growth in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region slowing.

Sales activity is still running at lower levels, and supply remains elevated, in the natural resource-intensive provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. This has resulted in somewhat softer price trends in the two western provinces and more pronounced price declines in Newfoundland and Labrador. Even so, activity in Alberta has firmed up compared to the low reached in early 2016 and the balance between supply and demand in the province has been tightening. By comparison, the balance between supply and demand in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland is increasingly favouring buyers.

To varying degrees, housing markets in Manitoba, Northern and Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island had a breakout year in 2016, with rising sales drawing down previously elevated levels of supply. So far this year, more balanced market conditions have remained in all of these regions.

Access to financing and affordability for potential home buyers has been reduced by tighter federal regulations announced late last year, together with recent increases in mortgage default insurance premiums and changes to Ontario housing policies. With little more than a month having passed since the provincial changes were announced and implemented, the combined impact of policy changes on home buyer and seller sentiment, sales, listings, and the balance between the two pose potential upside and downside forecast risks.

Nationally, sales activity is forecast to decline by 1.5% to 527,400 units in 2017. This is little changed compared to CREA’s previous forecast at the national level, with an upward revision to the sales forecast for British Columbia offsetting a downward revision to Ontario’s.

Sales in British Columbia are still forecast to decline in 2017 compared to the all-time record in 2016 (-9%). Newfoundland & Labrador is also forecast to see a sizeable decline in sales in 2017 (-11.7%), continuing a softening trend that stretches back nearly a decade. Smaller declines in activity are forecast for Saskatchewan (-4.4%), Ontario ( 2.1%) and Prince Edward Island ( 5.3%).

Alberta is forecast to have the largest increase in activity in 2017 (+10.2%); however, this would still leave sales in the province below its 10-year average.

Elsewhere, sales activity is forecast this year to be little changed from last year’s levels in Manitoba (+0.3%) and Nova Scotia (-0.4%), while activity in Quebec and New Brunswick is projected to increase modestly (+3.6% and +1.9%, respectively).

The national average price is forecast to rise by 7.4% to $526,000 in 2017. Ontario is forecast to post the only large average price gain in 2017 (+16%), which would nonetheless represent a moderation from where it is currently for the year-to-date.

Only Newfoundland and Labrador (-5.4%) and Saskatchewan (-1.6%) are forecast to see average price declines in 2017, in line with historically elevated supply in those two provinces. Average price gains are forecast to be around the 2% to 3% range in most other provinces in 2017.

In 2018, national sales are forecast to number 523,200 units, representing a decline of 0.8% compared to the 2017 forecast. Most of the annual decline is expected to result from fewer sales in British Columbia and Ontario following expected interest rate increases later in the year.

The national average price is forecast to rise by 1.8% to $535,400 in 2018, with an expected gain of about 5% in Ontario balancing a decline of almost 4% in British Columbia. The forecast increase in Ontario reflects an expected calming of home buying sentiment and modest rebound in sales in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region. The expected decline in average price for British Columbia is also in part compositional, with Vancouver sales as a share of provincial activity likely to decline as mortgage interest rates rise.

Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are projected to see small average price declines in 2018, with home price increases elsewhere forecast to more or less track overall consumer price inflation in 2018.

– 30 –

About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 120,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 90 real estate Boards and Associations.

For more information, please contact:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: [email protected]